| 引用本文: |
吴明,蒋艳.基于组合模型的北京市中医药总费用预测研究*[J].中国卫生经济,2023,42(8):33-36.[点击复制] |
Wu Ming,Jiang Yan.Research on Total Expenditure Prediction of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Beijing Based on Combinatorial Model[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2023,42(8):33-36.[点击复制] |
|
| 摘要: |
| 目的：基于组合模型预测2022—2030年北京市中医药总费用的变化趋势，为政策制定和调整提供数据支撑和参考。方法：运用ARIMA模型和灰色GM （1,1） 模型构建组合模型，对北京市中医药总费用机构流向构成部分及总量进行预测。结果：组合模型拟合精度明显优于GM （1,1） 模型和ARIMA模型分别预测的结果；根据预测结果，北京市中医药总费用从2022年的826.23亿元增至2030年的1 447.13亿元，年均增速为7.26%，机构流向优化明显。结论：可探索利用组合模型来提高费用预测精度；突发公共卫生事件对中医药费用存在较大冲击；应合理看待预测研究结果，根据实际情况的变化不断优化预测模型。 |
| 关键词: 中医药总费用 费用预测 ARIMA模型 灰色GM (1 1) 模型 北京 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-20 |
| 基金项目:北京市中医管理局2020年度中医总费用核算服务项目 （BUCM-2022-JS-FW-060） |
|
| Research on Total Expenditure Prediction of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Beijing Based on Combinatorial Model |
| Wu Ming,Jiang Yan |
| (Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102401 , China) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective: To predict the trend of total expenditure of traditional Chinese medicine in Beijing from 2022—2030 based on the combination model, and to provide data support and references for policy making and adjustment. Methods: ARIMA model and grey GM (1,1) model were used to construct a combined model to forecast the components and total amount of the flow direction of traditional Chinese medicine expense institutions in Beijing. Results: The fitting accuracy of the combined model is obviously better than that of GM (1,1) model and ARIMA model respectively. According to the forecast results, the total cost of traditional Chinese medicine in Beijing increased from 82.623 billion yuan in 2022 to 144.713 billion yuan in 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 7.26% , and the flow of institutions was optimized significantly. Conclusion: The use of combination models can be applied to explore the forecasting accuracy for cost forecasting research. Public health emergencies have a great impact on the cost of traditional Chinese medicine. The prediction research results should be viewed reasonably and the prediction model should be continuously optimized according to the changes of the actual situation. |
| Key words: total expenditure of traditional Chinese medicine expenditure prediction ARIMA model Gray GM(1 1) model Bei- jing |
