| 引用本文: |
高润国,马安宁,盛红旗,等.基于时间序列马尔科夫模型的我国城镇职工基本医疗保险基金收支平衡预测研究[J].中国卫生经济,2018,(1):54-56.[点击复制] |
.Prediction of income and expenditure balance of basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in China based on time series Markov mode[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2018,(1):54-56.[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 目的：利用1995-2015年21年间全国城镇职工基本医疗保险基金筹资与支付总额时间序列，预测2016-2025年的基本发展情况。方法：利用ARIMA模型构建基金筹资支付总额的拟合值，再利用马尔可夫模型来修正拟合值，来提高预测的精度。结果：仅用ARIMA拟合的基金筹资序列平均相对误差为5.81%，经马尔可夫模型修正后的平均相对误差降低为2.01%；基金支出序列模拟的平均相对误差为9.14%，经马尔可夫模型修正后的平均相对误差减少为5.35%。预测2025年全国城镇职工基本医疗保险基金筹资和支出为23 015.96亿元和19 090.82亿元。从2016年到2025年不会出现年度超支现象。结论：从全国情况来看，城镇职工基本医疗保险保持现有的筹资支出政策不变，在2016年到2025年不会出现年度超支。建议逐步提高城镇职工基本医疗保险统筹层次，由地市级统筹逐步提高到省级统筹，再提高到全国统筹，以增强基金防范风险的能力。 |
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| Prediction of income and expenditure balance of basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in China based on time series Markov mode |
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| Abstract: |
| Objective: From 1995 to 2015, the time series of funds and payments of basic medical insurance fund for urban workers in China was predicted from 2016 to 2025, and the basic development of was compared. Methods: Using the fitting time series ARIMA model to build the urban workers’’ basic medical insurance fund financing and payment of the total relative residual state to construct the annual use of Markov model to the fitting results, the state matrix to predict 2016 to 2025 relative residual state, to modify the time series prediction results. Results: the simulated time series of financing only, the relative fitting error is 5.81%, the relative error of the Markov model after correction for 2.01%; ARIMA simulation of spending time series, the relative fitting error is 9.14%, the relative error of the modified Markov model is reduced to 5.35%. In 2025, the basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in China was raised to 2 trillion and 301 billion 596 million yuan and 1 trillion and 909 billion 82 million yuan. There will be no annual overspending from 2016 to 2025. Conclusion: the basic medical insurance for urban employees will remain unchanged throughout the country, and the current funding policy will remain unchanged, and there will be no overruns during 2016 to 2025. It is suggested that the overall level of basic medical insurance for urban workers should be improved, and the overall level of the basic medical insurance for urban workers should be gradually raised to the provincial level as a whole, so as to improve the ability of the fund to prevent risks. |
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