| 引用本文: |
马桂峰,盛红旗,张婷,等.社会医疗保险基金收支平衡与风险评估研究[J].中国卫生经济,2017,(7):25-27.[点击复制] |
.Study on the balance of social medical insurance fund and risk assessment[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2017,(7):25-27.[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 目的：我国城镇基本医疗保险基金收支平衡变化情况，评估医保基金超支风险发生的时点和程度。方法：根据我国城镇基本医疗保险基金自收入支出和累计结余情况时间序列模型结果：我国基本医疗保险基金的负担系数从结论：随着我国老龄化趋势的加剧医疗费用的过快增长城镇医疗保险基金的收支平衡压力越来越大 |
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| Study on the balance of social medical insurance fund and risk assessment |
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| Abstract: |
| Objective: to analyze the changes of the income and expenditure balance of urban basic medical insurance fund in China, and to evaluate the time and extent of the occurrence of the risk. Methods: according to the income, expenditure and accumulated balance of the basic medical insurance fund of our country from 1995 to in 21 years, the time series model was used to forecast the balance of income and expenditure in the year of 2025 and in the year of 2030. Results: the basic medical insurance fund in our country the burden coefficient from 34.28% in 2007 to 35.25% in 2015; the number of retirees increases with increasing the number of staff proportion soared from 24.35% in 2007 to 85.98% in 2015; the fund expenditure coefficient increased from 0.63 in 2001 to 0.83 in 2015. Conclusion: with the increasing trend of aging in China, the rapid growth of medical expenses, the balance of urban medical insurance fund balance pressure is increasing, it is predicted that by 2021, the fund will have the risk of overspending |
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