| 引用本文: |
李俊,方鹏骞,陈王涛,等.经济发展水平、人口老龄化程度和医疗费用上涨等对我国医保基金支出的影响分析[J].中国卫生经济,2017,(1):27-29.[点击复制] |
.Economic development level, degree of an ageing population and rising medical costs, such as the influence of medical insurance fund expenditure analysis to our country[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2017,(1):27-29.[点击复制] |
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| 摘要: |
| 摘要：目的 用定量方法研究我国人口老龄化、医疗费用上涨和经济发展对我国基本医疗保险基金支出的影响程度，并分析原因，据此提出预防医疗保险基金“穿底”的对策和建议。方法：基于2005-2014年全国31个省市65岁以上老年人口抚养比、人均医疗费用、人均GDP、城镇化率和人口增长率等指标，运用多重线性回归定量分析我国医疗保险基金支出与上述指标之间的数量关系。结果：统计分析结果显示只有人口老龄化、医疗费用上涨和经济发展这三个变量对应的P值小于0.05，这表明上述的三个因素对我国医疗保险基金的支出都有显著的影响，其中医疗费用的影响最大，人口老龄化次之，经济发展水平最小。结论：随着人口老龄化程度加剧以及医疗费用快速上涨是导致我国医疗保险基金支出增加的主要原因，这也直接导致了我国医疗保险基金的收入增幅小于支出增幅，使医疗保险基金面临“穿底”的风险，对此，政府作为主导，应该通过对医疗保险制度的改革和医疗保障水平的设定，强化医疗保险机构和医疗机构控制医疗费用过快增长的责任。 |
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| Economic development level, degree of an ageing population and rising medical costs, such as the influence of medical insurance fund expenditure analysis to our country |
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| Abstract: |
| Abstract Objective: To investigate the aging of Chinese population, the rising cost of health care and the economic development impact on the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund, and put forward the suggestions and countermeasures for preventing the insurance fund from “wearing the bottom”. Methods: To use multiple linear regression to analyze the relationship between the the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund and the index, such as old-age dependency rate, the per capita medical expenses，the per capita GDP， the urbanization rate and the population growth rate index, which comes from 2005-2014 years in 31 provinces. Results: The statistical analysis results show that the aging population, the rising medical costs and the economic development，these three variables corresponding to the P value is less than 0.05, which indicates the aging of the population, the rising cost of health care and economic development has a significantly influence to the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund, and the rising medical costs affects the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund most, the aging of the population less, and the economic development dose the lease. Conclusion: With the escalating health care expenditures and raising the level of increasing aging of the population, the health insurance fund expenditures will be paying out more than it takes in, resulting in the risk of the health insurance fund risk wearing the bottom. In this regard, the government as the leading should take strategic moves to reform the medical insurance system and set the level of medical security to increase health care institutions and medical institutions’ rapid to control the growth of medical expenditure. |
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