Objective: To forecast the reduce of medical direct expenses of China from 2016 to 2020, under the circum stances that some outpatients and inpatients of tertiary hospitals and secondary hospitals can be referred to primary medical institutions. Methods: Data were collected from multiple national health statistic yearbooks in 2006-2015. The number of outpatients, number of inpatients, medical expenses of outpatients per visit, and medical expenses of inpatients per visit were used to forecast corresponding results of these 4 indexes from 2016 to 2020, by using linear regression model. Results: Following the increasing trend of the number of patients and expenses, patients and medical expenses in tertiary hospital will have a sharp growth during 2016 and2020. If 10, 20 and30 percent of patients of tertiary and secondary hospitals can be referred to secondary hospitals and primary medical institutions, total medical expenses can be reduced by 8, 16 and-24 percent, respectively. Conclusion: To slowdown the increasing trend of medical expenses, first priority is to slowdown the visits of outpatient and inpatient. it is an important act to strengthen the capacity of secondary hospitals . Medical care delivery system should match the distributary structure, and the patient distributary should be done step by step.