引用本文: 黄明燕,陈昱臻,王前强.我国基本医疗保险基金收支联动关系及趋势预测研究*[J].中国卫生经济,2023,42(5):34-36.[点击复制] HUANG Ming-yan,CHEN Yu-zhen,WANG Qian-qiang.Research on Revenue and Expenditure Linkage and Trend Prediction of Basic Medical Insurance Fund in China[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2023,42(5):34-36.[点击复制]
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我国基本医疗保险基金收支联动关系及趋势预测研究*
黄明燕,陈昱臻,王前强
0
(广西医科大学人文社会科学学院 南宁 530021)
摘要:
目的:分析我国基本医疗保险基金收支之间的联动关系,预测其短期变动趋势。方法:构建误差修正模型方程了解基本医疗保险基金收支长期效应和短期效应,运用ARIMA模型预测二者的短期变化趋势。结果:基本医疗保险基金收支存在长期协整关系,收入是支出的格兰杰因,两者表现为正向变动关系,该研究结束后的5个月基本医疗保险收支均有所下降。结论:基本医疗保险收入的变化可以用来解释支出的变动情况,二者存在长期正向联动关系,ARIMA模型预测效果较好。
关键词:  基本医疗保险  基金收入与支出  联动关系  误差修正模型  ARIMA模型
DOI:
投稿时间:2023-02-16
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(18XZZ013)
Research on Revenue and Expenditure Linkage and Trend Prediction of Basic Medical Insurance Fund in China
HUANG Ming-yan,CHEN Yu-zhen,WANG Qian-qiang
()
Abstract:
Objective: To analyze the linkage between revenue and expenditure of basic medical insurance fund in China and forecast its short-term trend. Methods: The error correction model equation is constructed to understand the long-term and short-term effects of basic medical insurance fund revenue and expenditure,and the ARIMA model is used to predict the short-term trend. Results: There is a long-term cointegration relationship between income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund. Income is the Granger cause of expenditure,showing a positive relationship. The income and expenditure of basic medical insurance will decline in the next five months. Conclusion: The change of basic medical insurance income can be used to explain the change of expenditure. T there is a long-term positive linkage between changes of the income and the expenditure. ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.
Key words:  basic medical insurance  fund revenue and expenditure  linkage relationship  error correction model  ARIMA model

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