| 摘要: |
目的：分析我国人口老龄化和经济高速发展背景下，老年人医疗需求以及对医疗费用增长的影响，为政府完善政策体系提供合理性建议。方法：采用面板门槛模型研究在经济发展的不同阶段下人口老龄化与医疗费用的关系。结果：人口老龄化对医疗费用增长存在经济发展的双重门槛效应，第一个临界点为当人均GDP达到6434元左右时，为老年人医疗需求释放的临界点；第二个门槛值即人均GDP达到46770元左右时，为老年人医疗需求趋于稳定的临界值。结论：当经济发展处于较低的阶段时，健康表现出较多投资品的特征，人口老龄化对医疗费用影响并不显著（P＞0.05）；而当经济发展处于较高阶段时，人口老龄化促进了医疗费用的增长，医疗需求更多地具有消费品的特征。应进一步完善我国的健康服务和社会保障水平，提高老年人晚年幸福满意度。 |
| 关键词: 经济增长 老年人 医疗服务需求 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2023-02-27 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(71874204)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(SY20181101037) |
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| Study on the Economic Development Impact on the Medical Demand of the Elderly |
| WEI Xing-chen,CHEN Zai-yu |
| (School of International Pharmaceutical Business,China Pharmaceutical University,Nanjing 211198 ,China) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective: To analyze the medical demand of the aged and its influences on the increase of medical cost in the background of aging and rapid economic development in China，so as to provide reasonable suggestions for implementing government's policy system. Methods: The panel threshold model was used to study the relationship between population ageing and medical costs at different stages of economic development. Results: There is a dual threshold effect of economic development in the aging process. The first threshold is when the per capita GDP reaches about 6434 yuan，which is the critical point for the release of medical demand of the elderly; the second threshold，when the per capita GDP reaches about 46770 yuan，is the critical point for the stabilization of medical demand of the elderly. Conclusion: When the economic development is at a lower stage，the health shows the characteristics of more investment goods，the aging has no significant influence on the medical cost (P＞0.05). When the economic development is at a higher stage，the aging has no significant influence on the medical cost，the aging promotes the increase of medical cost，and the medical demand is more characteristic of consumer goods. The level of health services and social security in China should be further improved to enhance the satisfaction of elderly people's well-being in their later years. |
| Key words: economic growth the elderly medical service demand |
