| 引用本文: |
李诗麒,徐海玉,邱佳瑜,等.人口老龄化、经济状况与卫生费用的关联分析[J].中国卫生经济,2022,41(12):7-9.[点击复制] |
LI Shi-qi,XU Hai-yu,QIU Jia-yu,et al.Analysis on the Correlation between Aging, Economic Status and Health Expenditure[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2022,41(12):7-9.[点击复制] |
|
| 摘要: |
| 目的：探究老年人口占比、人均可支配收入和人均卫生费用之间的关系，为卫生政策的制定提供数据支撑。方法：基于我国1990—2020年的相关时间序列数据，通过ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验，分析人口老龄化、经济状况与卫生费用间的关联。结果：人均可支配收入和人均卫生费用互为格兰杰因果；老年人口占比和人均卫生费用间不存在格兰杰因果关系。老年人口占比的提高尚未影响收入，但已经对消费产生影响。结论：对宏观经济进行调控时， 应充分关注卫生事业发展情况，让卫生费用处在合理的增长水平上，更好地与我国经济发展水平相适应；单纯的人口老龄化对卫生费用无明显影响，更应该将视角放在医疗技术进步、社会保障等方面，据此延缓老年人潜在卫生服务需求的释放。 |
| 关键词: 人口老龄化 人均可支配收入 卫生费用 格兰杰因果 |
| DOI： |
|
| 基金项目: |
|
| Analysis on the Correlation between Aging, Economic Status and Health Expenditure |
| LI Shi-qi,XU Hai-yu,QIU Jia-yu,LIU liming,YV jingfei,YANG yurun,CHENG wei |
| (College of Management,Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Beijing 100029 ,China ;Shenzhen Research Institute Beijing University of Chinese Medicine,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518172 ,China) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective: To explore the relationship among the proportion of the elderly population，per capita disposable income and per capita health expenditure，so as to provide the data basis for health policy formulation. Methods: ADF unit root test，Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to analyze the association between aging，economic status and health costs based on the national data from 1990 to 2020. Results: Per capita disposable income and per capita health expenditure are Granger reasons for each other. However，there is no Granger causality between the proportion of the elderly population and the per capita health expenditure. The increase in the proportion of the elderly population has not yet affected income，but has had an impact on consumption. Conclusion: The government should pay full attention to the development of health undertakings when regulating macro-economy. Meanwhile，the growth of health expenditure should be at a reasonable level，so as to better adapt to the level of economic development in China. In addition，simple aging has no obvious impact on health costs. Researchers should pay more attention to the progress of medical technology and the level of social security. Efforts should be made to find ways to delay the release of potential health service needs of the elderly. |
| Key words: aging per capita disposable income health expenditure Granger causality |
