引用本文: 柏星驰,黎艳娜,程薇,等.人口年龄增长对医疗费用的影响分析*[J].中国卫生经济,2022,41(10):40-43.[点击复制] Bai Xingchi,Li Yanna,Cheng Wei,et al.The Effect of Population Age on Healthcare Expenditure[J].CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS,2022,41(10):40-43.[点击复制]
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人口年龄增长对医疗费用的影响分析*
柏星驰,黎艳娜,程薇,满晓玮
0
(北京中医药大学管理学院 北京 100029)
摘要:
目的:分析人口年龄增长与医疗费用之间的非线性关系,为控制医疗费用、完善医疗保障体系提供参考依据。 方法:采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2012年、2014年、2016年及2018年的面板数据,通过建立动态面板门槛效应模型探究人口年龄变化对医疗费用的非线性影响。结果:存在一个门槛值,使得当年龄跨越约49岁的门槛值时,人口年龄增长对总医疗费用影响的弹性系数变大,由2.372增至5.422;城镇居民年龄的弹性系数在跨越门槛值后约变为原来的3倍,由2.643增至7.617;农村居民年龄的弹性系数变化较小,由1.846增至2.485。结论:随着人口老龄化的深化,卫生总费用将面临更大的增长压力。因此,应当结合当前老龄化背景的需求方向,加快医疗卫生健康体系内涵的扩充与整合。
关键词:  人口年龄增长  人口老龄化  医疗费用  非线性关系
DOI:
基金项目:北京市卫生健康委员会委托项目
The Effect of Population Age on Healthcare Expenditure
Bai Xingchi,Li Yanna,Cheng Wei,Man Xiaowei
(School of Management, Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 100029 , China)
Abstract:
Objective: To investigate the relationship between population age growth and healthcare expenditure so as to provide references for controlling health expenditure and improving medical insurance system. Methods: Based on the panel data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018, the nonlinear impact of population age change on healthcare expenditure are explored by establishing a dynamic panel threshold effect model. Results: There is a threshold value such that when the age crosses the threshold value of about 49 years old, the elasticity coefficient of the effect of population age growth on total medical expenses becomes larger, ranges from 2.372 to 5.422. The elasticity coefficient of the age of urban residents nearly tripled after crossing the threshold, increasing from 2.643 to 7.617; the elasticity coefficient of the age of rural residents changed little, increasing from 1.846 to 2.485. Conclusion: With the deepening of population aging, the total health expenditure will face greater growth pressure. Therefore, it is needed to speed up the connotation expansion and integration of the medical and health system in combination with the demand of the current aging background.
Key words:  population age growth  population aging  healthcare expenditure  non-liner relationship

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