| 摘要: |
| 目的：分析个体微观层面下年龄、临近死亡对医疗支出的影响。方法：利用2011年和2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据（CHARLS），通过构建两步估计模型分析临近死亡对医疗支出的影响。结果：当临近死亡时，伴随着年龄的增长医疗支出会出现先增长然后下降的趋势，即实际死亡年龄越高，其平均医疗费用支出反而越低。结论：临近死亡因素是影响医疗支出的显著因素，临近死亡时医疗支会出现显著的增加。具体到临近死亡时间，临近死亡一年和临近死亡二年对医疗支出的影响显著，临近死亡三年的影响不显著，而年龄对于医疗支出的影响不再显著。结论：老龄化背景下虽然由于老年人口比例的上升会给整个社会带来巨大的医疗支出负担，但不能简单的将老龄化与医疗支出上涨相联系，更不能过度夸大老龄化对医疗支出上涨的作用。 |
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| Aging，Time-to-Death，and Health Care Expenditure |
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| Abstract: |
| Objective:Investigate the impact of time-to-death(TTD) on the health care expenditure of elderly people. Methods: using 2011 and 2013 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey(CHARLS) data, by constructing a two step estimation model, the influence of near death on medical expenditure was analyzed. Results: TTD is a significant factor in the impact of medical spending, and there is a significant increase in health care expenditure when near to death.TTD is a significant factor in the impact of health care expenditure, and there is a significant increase in the health care expenditure when close to death. The TTD1 and TTD2 had a significant effect on health care expenditure, the effect of TTD3 was not significant, and the impact of age on medical expenditure is no longer significant.Conclusion: The article believes that, although the proportion of the elderly population due to the rise of the elderly population will bring enormous medical expenses burden to the whole society, but it is not easy to link the aging and medical expenses rise. More can not exaggerate the role of aging on the rise of health care expenditure. |
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