| 摘要: |
| 目的 探索EMD在个人现金卫生支出长期趋势分析中的适用性，为我国个人现金卫生支出增长规律及影响因素研究提供新的思路。方法 提取1978年至2013年中华人民共和国统计年鉴中个人现金卫生支出环比增长数据，运用EMD法将时间序列分解为不同IMF和RES，计算不同IMF的方差贡献率及波动周期。结果 以个人现金卫生支出环比增长速度为原始序列，成功分解出了4个IMF和RES。各IMF及RES的方差贡献率依次为44.58%，23.82%，6.12%，11.98%和13.49%，各IMF波动周期分别为3.0年、5.0年、11.7年和23.3年，分解结果不存在明显的端点效应和模态混叠现象。结论 EMD方法适用于个人现金卫生支出时间序列分解，分解结果可为进一步的预测及影响因素研究提供了基础。 |
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| Secular Trend Study of Individual Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure Based on EMD |
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| Abstract: |
| Objective The aim of this study is to explore he applicability of EMD in secular trend analysis of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure , and to provide a new way for predicting the tendency and evaluating the influence factors of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure. Methods The data of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure from 1978 to 2013 were extracted from The People’s Republic of China statistical yearbook, and the year to year growth rate were calculated, then the time series of the year to year growth rate was decomposed by EMD. Results We successfully extracted four IMFs and one RES from the original time series, and the variance contribution rate for each IMF and RES is 44.58%, 23.82%, 6.12%, 11.98% and 13.49% respectively, the fluctuation cycle of the four IMFs from the highest to the lowest was 3 years, 5 years, 11.7 years and 23.3 years. Conclusion The EMD method can be used in the secular trend study of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure, The results of IMFs and RES might helpful to the short-term prediction and the exploration of related influencing factors of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure . |
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